Bitcoin’s MVRV flashes a historic bullish signal – Can BTC price break $90K?

Bitcoin’s [BTC] current rally is starting to resemble patterns seen during previous bull runs.

Why does this matter? On the weekly chart, BTC’s 7%+ rally has pushed the price back into the $85k-$90k range seen earlier this year. More significantly, the short-term holders (people who have had a stake in BTC for less than 150 days) are now back around their breakeven levels, implying that recent BTC buyers are recovering their unrealized losses as BTC moves higher.

Against this backdrop, a fresh wave of euphoria could trigger a local top for Bitcoin. Remarkably, the latest reading of the Fear and Greed index suggests that BTC entered ‘extreme greed’ on the 22nd of September for the first time since the Q3 2025 cycle. This puts market sentiment at a more stretched level than when BTC hit $126k in late September-early October 2025. 

Interestingly, a recent Santiment report shows similar signs of euphoria on-chain.

As the chart above shows, Bitcoin ETFs’ demand has surged substantially, with $937.3 million in net inflows on the 21st of September. It marked the largest single-day inflow since BTC’s October 2025 peak, setting another record for the year. As Bitcoin trades near eight-month highs, it appears that ETF investors are chasing the rally again, adding another layer of heat to the market.