Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ rally falters – Why BTC is down 4.2% in October

Bitcoin’s [BTC] much-anticipated “Uptober” rally has disappointed investors in October 2026, with BTC posting a negative monthly return instead of following its historically bullish seasonal trend.

According to the CryptoQuant chart, Bitcoin was down 4.2% month-to-date as of the 25th of October, compared with an average October return of 18.1% between 2020 and 2025. This also marks the second consecutive negative October, following a 3.8% decline in October 2025.

This analysis comes as Bitcoin was trading at $81,296.02 after a hike of 1.9% in the past 24 hours, but the coin dropped 28% over the past year.

Factors that pulled down Bitcoin’s rally

That said, several factors have weakened Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. Spot demand continued to contract, as BTC ETFs saw a rough October month with outflows worth $26.10 million.

At the same time, the Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60, indicating that overall market conditions have become less favorable for Bitcoin. Although a reading of 60 does not necessarily signal a bearish market, the decline suggests that several bullish indicators have lost strength.

Now for things to get better for Bitcoin, macroeconomic development needs to roll in the background. This includes the Federal Reserve’s 28th October decision, upcoming U.S. economic data, and the 3rd November midterm elections, which could influence investor sentiment.