Bitcoin Slides to $77,000, but Prediction Market Gives 78% Odds of Reaching $84,000 First

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin slipped into the $77,000 range on concern that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, but prediction-market traders still favor further gains. Continued inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds for a ninth straight trading day are also supporting the view that institutional demand is underpinning prices.

Blockchain-based prediction market Myriad showed on Aug. 28 that 77.8% of bets in a contract asking whether Bitcoin would reach $84,000 or $55,000 first favored $84,000. The share betting on a drop to $55,000 was 22.2%.

Bitcoin climbed as high as $81,478 on Binance before falling to $76,888. The move followed Jackson Hole remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that highlighted inflation risks, fueling concern over a September rate increase. In CME Group's interest-rate futures market, the implied probability of a September hike rose to 55.7% from 35.4%. In crypto derivatives markets, about $481 million of positions were liquidated, including more than $360 million of long bets.