Bitcoin Stuck in Five-Week Range With U.S. CPI Seen as Next Key Catalyst

Bitfinex analysts described the same pattern. ETFs and companies that hold Bitcoin as a treasury asset remain the two main pillars of price-insensitive demand, but selling tied to recent corporate treasury activity has offset that support. That helps explain why Bitcoin rose only about 2% last week even as ETF inflows were strong and broader risk assets performed well.

Jeff Anderson, managing partner at STS Digital, said both buyers and sellers lack conviction amid extremely thin summer liquidity. Implied volatility has dropped sharply as investors wait for clarity on monetary policy and the outcome of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He added that a break above or below the current range could trigger a sharp move.

Attention is now turning to the U.S. CPI report due on August 12. It will be the first major inflation reading since Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stressed inflation in his press conference following the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Howard said Bitcoin could continue to move sideways until mid-September without a clear catalyst, adding that legislative progress on the Clarity Act may provide the next meaningful upside driver. CoinGlass data show September has historically been Bitcoin's weakest month, with an average decline of about 4% since 2013.