Bitcoin Tests May Highs: Why Is This Time Different for Recent Buyers?

In Brief

• Bitcoin trades near $81,050 after a 4% daily gain, matching its May 14 high.
• Short-term holder cost basis fell to $71,188 from $78,713 in May.
• Declining volume and a 1.0082 SOPR reading point to thin participation.

Bitcoin (BTC) price climbed to $81,050 on Friday, returning to the level it last touched on May 14. Recent buyers now sit far further from breakeven than they did then.

Glassnode data shows the average entry price for coins younger than 155 days has dropped sharply. Bitcoin, meanwhile, trades at almost the same level as in May.

Bitcoin price on-chain divergence comparison, May versus September 2026 / Source: BeInCrypto

Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Reset Almost $7,500 Lower

Short-Term Holder MVRV measures how far recent buyers sit above or below their average entry. The reading closed at 1.1415 on September 3, against 1.0298 on May 14.

Both dates share nearly the same price. May 14 closed at $81,059.69, while September 3 closed at $81,261.98, a difference of just 0.25%.

Short term holder MVRV /

The implied cost basis, in contrast, tells a different story. It stood near $78,713 in May and sits near $71,188 today, a reset of roughly $7,500.

That changes the margin for error. In May, a 2.9% dip would have pushed the whole cohort back underwater. The dip arrived, and the rally unwound toward the low $60,000s.