Bitcoin Up 22%: Has The Halving Cycle Begun?

Bitcoin peaked a year ago, hitting an all-time high of $126,210 in October 2025, and has since fallen more than 50%, bottoming near $58,000 two months ago. The tide may be turning; over the last week, Bitcoin rose by over 20%, marking its sharpest bounce during this year-long drawdown. The question is whether that marks the start of a leg higher or it’s a dead cat bounce within a bear market.

The optimistic bullish case rests on deleveraging and the Treasury’s actions to manage yields. Many crypto pundits believe that leverage used by Bitcoin investors last summer was massive. While it pushed Bitcoin’s price up substantially, it also left the price vulnerable to deleveraging. These pundits believe leverage has since normalized, which might ease pressure on Bitcoin. Second, the recent Treasury buyback announcements lead some to question the dollar and US Treasury bonds as safe havens. Thus, alternative currencies like gold and Bitcoin may be gaining value for some.

The bear case is more mechanical. Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle (mining rewards are cut in half every four years) has historically driven boom-bust cycles, including drawdowns ranging from 75% to over 90% leading into significant rallies.