Bitwise CIO says Bitcoin wins in all 3 economic scenarios as macro risks mount

Hougan says Bitcoin will still benefit from an AI superabundance market

In his memo, Hougan admitted that the number of possible economic directions is too many to even consider. His solution to the uncertainty is similar to what he did as a child: to explore everything and see exactly where it leads.

For starters, in the case of a hyper-productive AI economy, he argued, $BTC could still gain ground. He argued that as intelligence becomes more widely available and increasingly inexpensive, investors may place greater value on scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin.

“So in this ‘adventure,’ Bitcoin wins,” he said.

Conversely, in a bearish outlook that envisions a potential crash in the AI market, Hougan likened it to the 2008 financial crisis, citing defaults by data centers and bond insurers. Even as Bitcoin might decline along with other risky investments at the start of the downturn, the executive believed that government intervention would increase the money supply, leading to a Bitcoin bull market.

“And because of the geopolitical importance of AI, the odds of a bailout strike me as nearly 100%. And here’s what I see happening next: Money supply surges and Bitcoin rallies hard. This is exactly the environment Bitcoin was built for,” he wrote.