'Bull Market Confirmed': Analyst Flags Bitcoin's Fifth Historic Signal

Bitcoin’s Fifth Bull Market Signal

Bitcoin’s latest signal reflects a change in what newer and longer-standing holders paid for their coins, according to an analysis by Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost published on Sept. 24. He interprets the shift as confirmation of the recovery he anticipated when a separate signal appeared on July 11.

In a post on X, the analyst wrote:

“Bull Market Confirmed … This is the 5th occurrence, which gives a bit more credibility to the dynamic bitcoin is putting in place, though there’s always a margin for error, and I prefer to point that out.”

The measure compares cost basis, an estimate of the average price paid, across two groups of holders. Its bullish signal occurs when the short-term holder cost basis crosses above that of active long-term holders. The chart identifies four previous signals in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023; the latest crossover is the fifth in that series.

Why the Long-Term Holder Measure Excludes Dormant Coins

The comparison depends on which coins enter the long-term holder calculation. The analyst counts coins that have moved at least once during the past seven years, excluding older supply that has remained untouched throughout that period. He considers this a more coherent measure of active holders while acknowledging that the seven-year cutoff is arbitrary.