Crypto: CLARITY Act Crashes to 13% Passage Odds in Polls

The Clarity Act has never been closer to a vote. The US Senate must decide on September 15. However, it is going through unprecedented turbulence. Indeed, prediction markets now give this crypto-assets regulation bill only slim chances of adoption. On Polymarket, the probability of success dropped from 82% in February to only 13% on August 3, 2026. Enough to raise concerns!

In brief

Prediction markets radically revise their expectations

On Kalshi, traders estimate a 91% probability of a Senate vote before October 1. This market has already generated over $1.25 million in volume. The largest contract regarding the full adoption of crypto regulation even exceeds $6.8 million traded.

Polymarket tells a very different story. On this prediction platform, the bet is directly on the question: will H.R. 3633 (better known as the Clarity Act) become law in 2026? Indeed, more than $11.5 million have been wagered on this contract. However, the implied probability has collapsed to 13%. A dramatic drop compared to the 82% chance traders still anticipated last February!