Institutional interest is where Squire’s argument breaks. When a spot ETF sells a new share, the fund has to go and buy XRP on the open market to back it, so every dollar going into those funds is a dollar buying XRP. Ledger usage works differently, because someone sending a payment over the network never buys the token to do it.
Meanwhile, XRP ETF inflows have dropped month after month. Those funds recorded over $1.1 billion in their first two months of trading, and just $3.27 million across the first ten trading days of August. The XRP price then fell to its lowest in a year on August 11, in the same month ledger activity climbed 84%.
However, Squire’s other two reasons hold up. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger rose from 23,642 to 43,543 in the first eleven days of August, though activity in early July had dropped to its lowest of 2026, so the climb started from a weak base. Ripple also holds more than 75 regulatory licences worldwide and has spent roughly $4 billion on acquisitions since 2025. It secured a MiCA licence in July, when only about 210 of the 1,200-plus crypto firms operating in Europe managed it.
Despite Squire being bullish, XRP’s price performance this year says otherwise. XRP fell from $1.88 on Janaury 1 to $1.04 on June 30, a 45% loss in six months. It then dropped further to $0.9889 on August 11 and now barely clings to the $1 support. So adoption and Ripple’s licensing are both improving, but neither one puts buyers into the market.
XRP Price Prediction for the End of October
Three dated events could move the XRP price before Squire’s end of October timeline. The Senate returns on September 14 with a possible vote on the CLARITY Act—the bill that would classify XRP as a commodity under federal law.
The Federal Reserve then meets on September 16, where traders price a 32% chance of a rate hike. Galaxy Research and CryptoQuant also expect Bitcoin to bottom between September and November, which is the point in a cycle where Bitcoin stops falling, and money historically rotates into altcoins like XRP once that happens.
Bullish Prediction
The XRP price could reach $1.40 to $1.60 by the end of October if the bill, the Fed’s decision and Bitcoin’s price action all go XRP’s way. The CLARITY Act would have to clear its cloture vote, which is the procedural step that ends debate and forces a bill onto the floor.
The bill becoming law would make XRP’s commodity status permanent law and give institutions the certainty they have said they need. Bitcoin would also have to bottom in September, and ETF buying would need to return to ten or hundreds of millions of weekly inflows, and every new share those funds issue means buying XRP on the open market.
However, the bears keep blocking XRP’s rally at $1.06 and again between $1.12 and $1.15. Above those, XRP has to clear $1.32, where it last traded in May, and then the 200-day moving average near $1.38, which is the mean price over the past 200 days and the level traders treat as the end of a downtrend.
Base Prediction
The XRP price could hold between $1.00 and $1.20 if the Senate delays the vote again. XRP has defended the $1 support since June 25, and nothing else on the calendar resolves before September 15, so the coin has no catalyst that could trigger a rally over the next four weeks.
Bearish Prediction
In a bearish scenario, the XRP price could fall to $0.80 to $0.95 if the CLARITY Act stalls again while Bitcoin bottoms in October or November. XRP would have to lose the $1 support first, and the $0.60 to $0.80 band below that has held every XRP bottom since 2017. Robinhood traders currently give XRP a 50% chance of dropping under $0.80 before the end of 2026.
Can XRP Reach $5 by the End of October?
The XRP price could reach $1.40 to $1.60 by the end of October if the CLARITY Act passes, Bitcoin bottoms in September and ETF buying returns. Even then, that is less than a third of the $5 Squire predicted.
However, none of his three reasons can close that difference. Adoption and Ripple’s licensing have both improved all year while the XRP price fell, and demand for XRP itself has slowed, which is why XRP ETF inflows have dropped by over 96% since launch. That demand has to return and XRP’s legal status has to be permanently settled before the token can target anything close to $5.
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