CryptoQuant warns of potential Bitcoin correction as profits peak

Bitcoin holders have been cashing in at a pace not seen in months, and the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant thinks the market should pay attention. The company flagged a confluence of signals: surging realized profits, cooling spot demand, and a persistently negative Coinbase Premium Index that together suggest a correction could be on the table.

CryptoQuant is careful to note that none of this guarantees a slide into bear territory. But the pattern rhymes uncomfortably with dynamics observed during the 2022 downturn, when speculative rallies repeatedly fooled participants into thinking the worst was over.

On May 4, daily realized profits hit 14,600 BTC, the highest level since December 10, 2025. By mid-August, daily realized profits peaked in the range of 23,000 to 25,700 BTC, contributing to roughly 110,000 BTC in net realized profits since mid-August alone.

Unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% in early May, the highest reading since June 2025. By September, that figure had ballooned to 33%.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase (a proxy for US spot buyers) and other global exchanges, has consistently turned negative throughout 2026. A negative reading means US buyers are paying less than the global average.