Fed Study: Bitcoin Beliefs Drive Buying More Than Demographics

A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland finds that what Americans believe about bitcoin’s future returns matters far more than their demographics in determining whether they buy it.

The study, titled “Do You Even Crypto, Bro?,” drew on repeated large-scale surveys of U.S. households participating in the Nielsen Homescan Panel from 2018 through 2025, with individual waves collecting 15,000 to 25,000 responses.

Who holds bitcoin and why

Bitcoin holders tend to be young, male, higher-income, and more libertarian or politically independent.

Age was the single strongest demographic predictor — those under 40 were 13 percentage points more likely to own bitcoin than those over 60.

The researchers noted:

“While Bitcoin is the most commonly held cryptocurrency, most individuals who own crypto own multiple currencies.”

About 20% of holders reported that bitcoin and other digital assets made up at least half of their financial portfolio.

Beliefs matter more than background

The paper’s most striking finding was that expected returns alone explained more variation in ownership than all observable household characteristics combined.

In 2021, bitcoin holders expected a 22% annual return while non-holders expected just 7%.