Is the Fear of Quantum Decryption Overblown? Bitcoin's Market Action Tells a Calmer Story

In 2026, warnings that quantum computers could break Bitcoin's cryptography were issued repeatedly. Yet each time, the market barely flinched. On August 26, the day after StarkWare announced the first quantum-resistant transaction on Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency briefly reclaimed the $80,000 level (approximately ¥13 million). Quantum-related headlines did nothing to derail the upward momentum.

So how did Bitcoin actually react on days when the quantum threat made headlines? A review of the year's record shows the market's response was strikingly muted.

The Reality of the "Quantum Shocks" Since the Start of the Year

The first ripple came on January 17 from U.S. securities giant Jefferies. Its head of equity strategy removed Bitcoin from the firm's model portfolio — a 10% allocation — citing advances in quantum technology, rotating the funds into gold and gold mining stocks. The market, however, showed no notable reaction.

On February 6, crypto asset manager CoinShares published an estimate that roughly 1.6 million Bitcoins sitting in legacy-format wallets could be vulnerable to quantum attacks, but that only about 10,000 BTC were held in amounts large enough to be worth attacking. On February 12 of the same month, a revised version of BIP-360 — a proposal to phase out quantum-vulnerable address types — was released.