Japanese Yen, US Yields Pose Biggest Near-Term Bitcoin Risk: Analysts

A stronger yen could accelerate the unwinding of carry trades, putting stocks and crypto under pressure at the same time.

Bitcoin (BTC) is heading into one of its most consequential weeks of the year so far, with the Federal Reserve announcing its September rate decision on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan following two days later.

Markets are pricing in roughly an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike, and according to XWIN Japan, the real question isn’t whether rates move but how hawkish both central banks sound once they do.

Fed, BOJ, and a Trade Threat Collide

XWIN Japan laid out the scenario that worries it most: US yields and the yen rising together. Higher US rates tighten global liquidity, and a stronger yen risks speeding up the unwind of yen-funded carry trades, pushing investors to cut risk across stocks and crypto at once.

Brent crude has traded above $100, and the US 10-year yield has approached 5%, keeping inflation worries alive going into the decision. Once the meetings pass, XWIN wants traders watching US yields, USD/JPY, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and underlying demand, since, according to them, that’s where the real test begins.