Prediction Markets Abandon Cheap Oil as Brent Passes $100

In brief

• Brent passed $100 for the first time in six weeks after Houthi strikes on Saudi facilities and U.S. attacks on Iranian tankers.
• On Myriad, the $120 side of a crude oil market has led $55 since the start of September.
• Polymarket puts WTI reaching $100 this month at 59%, up nine points.

Brent crude traded at $101.09 on Wednesday morning, up 3.2% on the day and above $100 for the first time in six weeks, with West Texas Intermediate at $96.27. Prediction market traders have moved with it, and hard.

The trigger was a weekend and a half of escalation. Saudi officials say Houthi rebels attacked Saudi oil facilities early Tuesday, wounding 73. U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian oil tankers the same day, after hitting three others on Saturday, in response to Iranian ballistic missile attacks on an American warship.

On Myriad, which asks whether crude reaches $120 or falls to $55 first, the $120 side sits at 56.5%, up 15.1 points. The two sides had traded within a few points of each other since mid-August, with $55 ahead for most of that stretch. They crossed at the start of September and have not crossed back. The market has taken $12.7 million in volume since March. (Diclosure: Myriad is a prediction market owned by Dastan, Decrypt's parent company)