Anthropic told investors over the weekend that its annualized revenue run rate hit $65 billion at the end of July, while OpenAI has said its ARR recently reached $40 billion. Both are enormous, but below the higher numbers that had been circulating in Silicon Valley. Reuters reported Anthropic is projecting 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion, likely below more aggressive investor projections.
Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that nine top tech companies have about $3 trillion of off-balance-sheet commitments largely tied to AI, roughly triple what those companies owe under outstanding leases and long-term borrowings, and growing faster than traditional capex, which totaled about $600 billion over the past year. Together, those data points are pushing investors to reprice long-dated AI exposure, and the picks-and-shovels side of the trade (we profiled seven of the power, cooling, and networking suppliers behind the buildout in a free report here) is where the durable spend actually lands.
Software Holds Up While Hardware Bears the Brunt
The result is a textbook risk-off rotation. Technology is the worst-performing sector today. AI hardware, semiconductors, neoclouds and consumer electronics are all lower, while healthcare, consumer defensive, utilities and energy are higher. Software is outperforming. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (NASDAQ:IGV) is roughly flat, up 0.04% on the day, a sharp contrast with the pain across hardware-heavy corners of tech.
A Sharp One-Month Rally Comes Off
Today’s declines follow a strong run for the group. IonQ was up about 35% over the past month heading into today. Rigetti was up about 32% over the past month. D-Wave was up about 25% over the same window. That momentum made these names especially vulnerable to profit-taking on a rate-driven risk-off day. The fuller picture, though, complicates the story. On a year-to-date basis IonQ is up only about 4%, D-Wave is down about 20%, and Rigetti is down about 16%. Today’s slide comes off a hot four weeks that has only partly repaired a weak year.
The earnings backdrop is worth remembering. IonQ posted Q2 revenue of about $80M, up roughly 287% year over year in its Q2 10-Q filing, and raised its FY26 revenue guide to $280M to $290M. Rigetti reported revenue of about $5M, up roughly 185% year over year, and signed a letter of intent with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100M in CHIPS Act funding. D-Wave’s Q2 revenue came in at about $3M, essentially flat year over year and missing the roughly $4M estimate, though H1 bookings surged to $35.5M from $2.9M a year earlier and remaining performance obligations rose 668% to $40.7M.
While quantum names have been familiar to investors for years, their ramp is still in its very early stages.
What to Watch
Watch the direction of long-dated Treasury yields in the coming days and any Fed commentary in the weeks ahead. Any relief at the long end of the curve tends to bring the quantum cohort back first, because these names move as a group on rate and risk sentiment.
The next scheduled catalysts are Q3 earnings later this year and continued milestone announcements, including IonQ’s 256-qubit demo, Rigetti’s CHIPS Act funding progress, and D-Wave’s gate-model roadmap.
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