GSR's chief legal and strategy officer Josh Riezman said that he anticipated the SEC and CFTC would push through ambitious rules that could benefit the industry over the near term. "But then the next administration, depending on how that shakes out, we can be looking very much like a potentially Gensler 2.0 type scenario," he said, referring to former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who under President Joe Biden sued dozens of crypto companies.

A CFTC spokesperson said that the Clarity Act is essential to locking in "durable" rules and that, absent congressional action, the agency is prepared to act to preserve the United States' position at the forefront of global financial markets.

The bill's path has been complicated by opposition from both Democratic lawmakers and traditional Wall Street institutions. Democrats have pushed for stronger anti-money laundering safeguards and tighter ethics provisions. CME $CME Group filed a lawsuit against the CFTC in June challenging its approval of perpetual crypto futures, and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association has called on the SEC to weigh restrictions on its blockchain-based stock trading plan.

The Senate departed Washington without voting on the bill before a five-week August recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion setting up a September 15 procedural vote requiring 60 votes; a failed vote could effectively kill the bill. The Senate calendar offers only 14 working days after lawmakers return before an October election recess, with the full House and about one-third of Senate seats on the ballot in November.

The central enforcement dispute — whether state attorneys general or the Justice Department should enforce a ban on government officials operating crypto businesses — remains unresolved. Senate Republicans updated the bill in July to prohibit the president and other federal officials from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrency, with violations carrying penalties reaching $250,000 daily, but Democrats have rejected the DOJ as a credible enforcement authority.

"We need something permanent," said Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association and a former Republican CFTC commissioner.