The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Fades, as Wall Street Rhythm and Macro Changes Reshape Crypto Asset Logic

The Bitcoin market is undergoing a profound paradigm shift, with its traditional four-year cycle logic gradually giving way to a six- to eight-year Wall Street-style rhythm. Analysts generally believe that the core of this transformation lies in the reshaping of asset pricing power by macroeconomic factors. Since the completion of Bitcoin’s halving in April 2024, the block reward has been reduced to 3.125 Bitcoin (BTC), and the annual new supply has shrunk to approximately 164,250 coins, accounting for only 0.82% of the total circulating supply. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, by the next halving in 2028, the annual new supply will further decline to 82,125 coins, with the proportion dropping to 0.41%, indicating a significant diminishing trend in the supply shock effect.

At the same time, the influence of institutional channels is rising sharply. Channels including exchange-traded products and corporate bonds have accumulated holdings of over 2.7 million Bitcoin, a scale more than 16 times the total annual output of miners. As a large amount of Bitcoin becomes deposited in corporate balance sheets and regulated investment products, the marginal impact of new miner supply on the market continues to weaken, and institutional holdings have replaced miner output as the core variable dominating the market.