The S&P 500 Pumped on Good Inflation Data — Why Didn't Bitcoin?

That creates a potentially fragile market structure with spot buyers remaining hesitant while futures positioning comparatively elevated.

When favorable macro catalysts fail to generate upside, leveraged long positions become increasingly vulnerable to unwinding, potentially adding further selling pressure.

Bitcoin faces overhead supply around the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $68,700, where recent buyers sitting on losses could use a recovery to exit positions.

While weak spot demand could keep prices under pressure in the near term, that same prolonged correction has pushed holder profitability toward levels historically associated with deeper market resets.

Weak Demand Meets Capitulation

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s supply in profit has fallen to just 51.4% as BTC trades near $63,000.

48.6% of Bitcoin supply in circulation is currently held at an unrealized loss, which is the lowest level since 2023 and a significant reversal from the market peak when almost 100% of Bitcoin were held in profit.

The last time supply in profit hovered near 51%, Bitcoin was trading around $16,000 to $20,000 in early 2023.

That does not necessarily mean Bitcoin has reached its final bottom, but in the near term spot demand will need to return to avoid further capitulation.

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