Traders price a one-in-100 chance that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 this month

Polymarket's monthly market on where the cryptocurrency will trade, with $19.8 million of volume and six days left to run, puts the odds of bitcoin touching $100,000 before the end of August at just 1%.

The chance of reaching $92,500 is priced at 6%, and $90,000 at 12%, underlining the gap between price action and expectation.

Bitcoin was last quoted at $80,420 on the platform, up 27.49% over the month, having earlier touched $81,237.94, its highest since mid-May.

Traders put the probability of a move to $85,000 at 41%, and $82,500 at 70%.

Both of those lines have moved sharply higher in recent sessions, suggesting the market is repricing the near-term upside while remaining sceptical about anything more dramatic.

In fact, a fall back to $77,500 is rated a 50% chance, $75,000 at 27% and $72,500 at 11%. Below that, the odds thin out fast, with $65,000 at 2% and $60,000 at 1%.

The implied central case, then, is a bitcoin that finishes August somewhere between $77,500 and $85,000, with a modest skew to the upside and little conviction in either a breakout or a collapse.

That sits awkwardly with the bullish commentary around the rally.

Cited on Reuters, Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said a sustained break above current levels would open the door to $95,000 to $100,000.