Why bitcoin is down 'just' 32% a year after its record high of $126,000

Sun pointed to the numbers. "Bitcoin's current annualized volatility hovers around 40%, which is noticeably lower than its long-term historical levels exceeding 80%," he said.

Ardern sees the same in the options market, where bitcoin's annualized implied or expected volatility index, DVOL, has been pinned around 35 points.

"The shape going forward is probably a staircase — grind up, air pocket, fast repair — rather than a parabola," he said.

Sun still isn't ruling out big rallies and the reason lies in bitcoin's tokenomics.

Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million, and long-term holders own a high share of it. Add to that large ETF inflows over a short period, a rapid improvement in macro liquidity, or concentrated short covering, and prices could still see sharp bullish moves, he explained.

In those cases, "marginal demand can still exert a powerful upward push on prices, potentially triggering non-linear surges."

Don't get too bullish just yet

Ardern's bigger warning is about positioning. Implied volatility is near its lowest percentile on record, and one-year options skew is still neutral to bearish.

"The derivatives market has bought 'shallow', but nobody is willing to pay for 'upside exposure' yet,” he said.

Options skew measures the difference between pricing for bullish call options and bearish put options. A neutral skew means traders aren't yet chasing calls or upside exposure.