Why XRP Needs Real Demand to Reach New Highs
XRP needs a lot more money than it has now to reach new highs. At $3.84 with 63 billion coins in circulation, XRP’s market cap would be $242 billion, against the $65 billion it is worth today. Some of that buying already exists via XRP ETFs, which hold around 978 million XRP that nobody can sell while investors keep their shares. But that is under 2% of the supply after nine months of trading.
Ripple’s lending protocol is meant to change that pace. Built on two standards called XLS-65 and XLS-66, it would let holders deposit XRP into vaults that fund fixed-term loans and pay a set return, with borrowers assessed off-chain rather than by automated collateral rules. It would be the first time XRP earns anything just for being held, and it would lock coins away for the length of every loan.
But the protocol has been waiting since January. The amendment opened for validator voting after the v3.1.0 release, and support was still near 20% at the start of August, against the 80% an XRPL amendment needs to hold for two straight weeks before it switches on. Halborn’s re-audit in June found no critical or high-severity flaws, and RippleX is offering up to $200,000 to anyone who finds one. What’s missing is validators voting for it.
Meanwhile, everything else Ripple has built has done nothing for the XRP price. The company won a full MiCA licence from Luxembourg’s regulator in July along with an EU electronic money licence, and it holds a conditional U.S. national trust bank charter, yet XRP still lost 43% of its value in 2026.
XRP Price Prediction: Will XRP Ever Break Its ATH?
Four things could decide whether XRP breaks $3.84, and only one of them is close to certain. Bitcoin has peaked 12 to 18 months after every halving, so the 2028 halving would likely put the next cycle top somewhere in 2029. The other three are the lending protocol vote, the CLARITY Act, and how much money the XRP ETFs bring in, and none of those has gone XRP’s way yet.
Bullish Prediction
XRP could break its ATH in 2029 if all three catalysts fall into place. Validators would have to approve the lending protocol, which would give holders a reason to lock XRP away and earn from it rather than trade it.
The CLARITY Act would have to pass and make XRP’s commodity classification permanent, which is what institutions have said they need before committing money, and that could push ETF inflows past $4 billion a year. A cycle top in 2029 would then lift XRP along with the rest of the crypto market.
XRP could reach around $5 in such a scenario, which would push its market cap to roughly $350 billion at the 70 billion coins likely circulating by then. XRP has never been worth more than $210 billion, so this is the outcome that asks the most.
Base Prediction
The XRP price could climb back toward $3.84 without breaking it if the catalysts land but the money arrives slowly. Validators could approve the lending protocol, though the vaults would take years to fill and early deposits would be small against a 63 billion coin supply.
The CLARITY Act could pass in a later session, but institutions would take years to build positions once it does. ETF inflows could pick up on that news without reaching $4 billion a year, since the funds have taken in $1.51 billion in nine months.
That would leave the XRP price between $2.50 and $3.50 at the 2029 peak, which is roughly where it traded in the summer of 2025 and would put its market cap between $175 billion and $245 billion.
Bear Prediction
The XRP price could stay under $2 if the vote and the bill both stall. Validators might never reach the 80% needed to approve the lending protocol, which would leave XRP with no way to earn anything and no reason for holders to lock it away.
The CLARITY Act could also fail to pass before this Congress ends, which would leave institutions waiting on a commodity classification any future SEC could withdraw. XRP could keep following Bitcoin’s moves, topping out above $2 in the next cycle before falling back to $1 in the trough that follows.
Will XRP Ever Hit a New All-Time High?
XRP will most likely break $3.84, but not in this cycle. The July 2025 run got within 5% of its ATH on the news that the SEC case was ending, and that happened months before the ETFs launched, without the lending protocol and without the CLARITY Act. But XRP could not hold those levels, because nothing keeps the coins locked away once the news passes.
The lending protocol and the CLARITY Act would both change that. Validators would give holders a reason to lock XRP into vaults instead of selling into the next rally, and the Senate would give institutions a legal status they can build on, instead of one a future SEC could withdraw. Until both land, the XRP price will keep moving with Bitcoin rather than on anything Ripple builds.
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