Altcoins gained 21% and still lost ground to Bitcoin. What would finally turn the tables?

Glassnode reported that altcoin market capitalization climbed 21% over the past month, while altcoins' share of the combined Bitcoin-and-altcoin market fell 0.9 percentage points over 90 days, based on data as of Sept. 7.

Capital has moved up the entire crypto ladder together, with Bitcoin absorbing most of the gain while higher-beta tokens held their ground without gaining. That divergence sets up an unusually clean test this week, running through both the Federal Reserve and the US Senate.

The Fed decides how Bitcoin's recovery can hold

Bitcoin recovered roughly 27% from the August lows near $62,000, trading close to $79,000 as of Sept. 15. Yet, BTC remains well below the $83,000 to $86,000 band Glassnode identifies as a genuine cost-basis wall.

Roughly 1.07 million BTC was acquired inside that range, almost entirely by long-term holders, with the heaviest concentration near $85,000. Sellers positioned there are defending their cost basis, well beyond simply chasing a round number.

Below current price, Glassnode's True Market Mean sits near $76,600, functioning as the rough floor beneath this recovery.

Reports noted that 85% of economists expect the Fed to raise rates 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% at the Sept. 16 meeting. Futures markets have priced roughly 90% odds of a hike alongside several more increases through mid-2027.