Analyst who predicted 2021 crash admits he was wrong about Bitcoin

Benjamin Cowen built his reputation by being early.

The crypto analyst behind Into The Cryptoverse, a popular YouTube channel focused on Bitcoin cycle analysis, is widely credited with calling the 2021 crypto collapse before most of the market saw it coming.

That track record made him one of the most-followed bearish voices in the space. It also made his 2026 call harder to ignore, and harder to walk back.

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A thesis that worked until it didn't

Cowen spent months arguing that a familiar sequence was playing out: rising energy prices would push yields higher, force the Federal Reserve to hike rates, strengthen the dollar, and drag Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, lower.

As recently as September 4, he assigned a 65% probability that Bitcoin's cycle low was still ahead, with some scenarios pointing as low as $44,000.

Every link in his chain held, except the last one. Bitcoin rallied past $85,000 this week instead of falling, breaking the midterm-year patterns from 2014, 2018, and 2022 that had underpinned his outlook.

Trending on TheStreet Roundtable:

On September 21, Cowen posted on X: "I was wrong. Not going to make excuses. I deserve to be dunked on."