Ben Cowen’s Bitcoin Prediction: Why An S&P 500 Correction Could Trigger An October BTC Bottom

“Narrative follows price," said analyst Benjamin Cowen warning investors not to become overly attached to bearish market narratives.

• Ben Cowen said a correction in US stocks later this year could drag Bitcoin toward a cycle low around October.
• The analyst tied Bitcoin's outlook to the S&P 500, saying that four-year market cycles are not unique to crypto.
• Cowen pointed to 2018, when a second-half equity correction coincided with Bitcoin's collapse below $6,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) investors may be watching ETF flows and Federal Reserve signals, but ex-NASA researcher and macro analyst Benjamin Cowen believes the market's most important chart right now is the S&P 500 (SPX).

The founder and CEO of Into the Cryptoverse said his base-case scenario remains a "secondary correction" in U.S. equities later this year, arguing that Bitcoin's status as a high-beta, liquidity-sensitive asset could leave it vulnerable to another leg lower. If stocks pull back meaningfully, Cowen believes Bitcoin could reach a cycle low around October.

Speaking on the Bitcoin Magazine podcast, Cowen added that he views the S&P 500 as a key macro anchor for Bitcoin. As evidence that four-year cycles are not unique to Bitcoin, he pointed to the S&P 500's historical tendency, saying that “Bitcoin does not have a monopoly on the four-year cycle. The S&P 500 for a long time bottomed approximately every four years.” Cowen highlighted major stock-market lows across the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s.