BIT Research: Gold and Bitcoin Break Out Together, What Is $40 Trillion in U.S. Debt Changing?

“From $40 trillion in U.S. government debt to pressure on long-term yields, investors are turning their attention back to hard assets like Gold and Bitcoin.”

Gold and Bitcoin have both broken out recently. Bitcoin has broken through the descending trend line that defined the current bear market and moved back above the 21-week moving average, a key dividing line during this bear market. Gold, meanwhile, has regained momentum after pulling back meaningfully from its all-time high in late January. At the same time, U.S. government debt has crossed $40 trillion, while the 10-year Treasury yield has once again flirted with the critical 4.70% level, keeping pressure on long-term borrowing costs.

As U.S. debt continues to rise, policymakers may ultimately have to tolerate modestly elevated inflation as a form of financial repression. Against this backdrop, investor interest is returning to hard assets like Gold and Bitcoin, while the Treasury’s recent measures to support the long end of the bond market provide another sign that macro forces are shifting.

$40 Trillion in U.S. Debt and 4.70% Treasury Yields: Pressure Builds at the Long End

Total U.S. debt has climbed roughly 10% over the past year, from $36 trillion to the symbolically important $40 trillion mark. In early July 2025, the U.S. debt ceiling was raised by another $5 trillion, creating more room for further debt expansion. At the same time, U.S. tech companies are issuing record volumes of debt to finance AI infrastructure, with this new corporate supply increasingly competing with Treasuries for investor demand.