Bitcoin Bear Market May Not Be Over Despite August Rally, Fidelity Warns

Bitcoin’s rally in August has revived optimism for the crypto sector, but Fidelity Digital Assets stated that the rebound from June to mid-August was weak. August’s rally was the strongest monthly performance since November 2024, with Bitcoin rising by over 25% during the third week, yet not enough to signify a bottom in the market.

The rally was broad across digital assets, according to Fidelity, with Ethereum up 34.1% and Solana increasing 28%. The firm noted it is still unknown whether this signals the start of a new recovery or a temporary rebound in a continuing bear market.

The watched reference point is November 2026. November 2022 was the previous bear-market low, and some speculators have focused on four-year cycles. Fidelity added that Bitcoin has never had a set schedule for its cycles. It could have been set in July, or the prices may fall again and produce another low in November or later.

Fidelity Digital Assets vice president of research Chris Kuiper noted that in the past, adoption came in waves, and over longer periods of time, sticking to Bitcoin has been more successful than trying to time the bottom, although this does not mean that this will be the same cycle for Bitcoin.