Bitcoin (BTC) From 10x Rallies to 3–5x Gains, CryptoQuant Founder Explains the Shift

• CryptoQuant founder expects 3–5x BTC returns this cycle instead of another 10x rally.
• A more mature market could lead to a less severe Bitcoin bear market.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju is making a case that most retail traders do not want to hear: this Bitcoin bull cycle is likely to deliver 3–5x returns rather than another parabolic 10x rally, followed by a significantly milder bear market than previous cycles.

When Bitcoin was smaller, and retail dominated the market, hot money fuelled explosive rallies and 80% crashes in equal measure. Today’s market is a different animal. Institutional ownership is growing, the market cap is substantially larger, and the same forces that cap the upside are softening the downside. 

What the On-Chain Data Is Saying?

The PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, is reflecting exactly this dynamic, with less extreme cycle tops and bottoms forming at higher profitability levels than previous cycles.

Moreover, this cycle, MVRV never fell below 1. Even at the lows, BTC stayed above holders’ average on-chain cost basis. Some investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater. 

Meanwhile, three signals are pointing in the same direction. The rising realised cap signals fresh capital inflows. OG whales have stopped selling. And futures whales built large long positions near the bottom. Even the PnL Index’s 365-day moving average, which typically lags at turning points, is forming a meaningful inflection right now.