Bitcoin Combined Market Index Mirrors 2018 And 2022 Bear Phases

Historical data shows previous cycle bottoms formed when BCMI reached approximately 0.10–0.15, as observed in 2019 and during the 2022–2023 bear phase.

Current readings remain above those capitulation levels, suggesting that while Bitcoin may already be operating within a bearish framework, full capitulation has not yet arrived.

On the weekly chart, BTC has lost the $70,000 level and retreated toward the mid-$60,000 range. The $60,000–$62,000 zone now stands as a critical support area, aligning with prior consolidation phases and high-liquidity trading zones that historically attracted demand.

Why It Matters: Capitulation Threshold Still Ahead

The BCMI's decline into the low 0.2 range reflects a convergence of negative signals — shrinking unrealized profits, rising realized losses, deteriorating sentiment, and ongoing valuation compression. Unless the index stabilizes and reclaims the 0.4–0.5 zone, CryptoQuant's analysis indicates the probability of continued structural weakness remains elevated.

Recent price declines have been accompanied by elevated trading volume, which analysts typically associate with distribution or forced deleveraging rather than gradual profit-taking.

Bitcoin's near-term direction remains closely tied to liquidity conditions, institutional flows, and broader macroeconomic sentiment affecting risk assets.

Alexey Bondarev is the Head of Content at Yellow.com, having reported on crypto for the last 10 years. He specializes in in-depth Research and Learn pieces, with a focus on analytical reporting, industry context, and the bigger forces shaping crypto, from the AI era and security technologies to fintech innovation. He believes that everything digital will imminently overcome everything analogue and is working hard to make that come true.