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NewsLayer PulseLIVEBTC$63,535+0.19%ETH$1,889+0.57%SOL$76.32+1.01%XRP$1.01+0.60%DOGE$0.0703+0.99%ADA$0.1825+0.11%Total Cap$2.27T+0.31%24H Vol$46.5BLayer Index45 Neutral

External ReportingPublicado hace 13 horas

Bitcoin Faces Brutal 2026 Bet: Polymarket Traders See $40,000 More Likely Than a Return to $100,000

Cryptocurrency bettors are tempering expectations about Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reclaiming $100,000 in 2026.

Publisher Benzinga 1 min de lectura

Image via Benzinga

Market Context

Bitcoin

BTC

$63,535

+0.19% 24h

Layer Index

Neutral

Layer Index

↑ 10 pts in 24h

Cryptocurrency bettors are tempering expectations about Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reclaiming $100,000 in 2026.

Bitcoin to $100,000 Unlikely in 2026?

Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently assigns only a 9% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 and beyond this year, down from a high of 91% in January.

Similarly, chances of BTC reaching $90,000 fell from 71% in early May to 16% as of this writing.

Interestingly, the odds of Bitcoin moving lower were relatively higher. Punters have priced in a 23% possibility of Bitcoin declining below $45,000, alongside a 15% chance of a drop below $40,000.

Divergent Outlooks for Bitcoin

Forecasts about Bitcoin’s price action have surged. even as the asset struggles through a drawn-out bear market.

Popular market analyst Alessio Rastani predicted Bitcoin would crash to $20,000 by the end of 2027 before making a sharp recovery.

Bitcoin rallied to its all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025. Since then, the apex cryptocurrency has collapsed nearly 505.

Price Action: At the time of writing, BTC was exchanging hands at $63,730.30, down 0.04% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

Image via Shutterstock

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