Bitcoin Forecast: The Level That Decides Before the CPI

The most important number this week is not the Bitcoin price but the US consumer price index on Wednesday. It lands on October 14 at 8:30 a.m. New York time, 2:30 p.m. in Germany, and it is the last inflation print the Federal Reserve will have on the table before its rate decision on October 28. The next consumer price index does not follow until November 10, two weeks after the meeting. For Bitcoin that means the range it trades in will be set between Wednesday midday and October 28.

On Monday evening a Bitcoin costs $82,663, or roughly 74,100 euros. The daily high was $84,250 and the daily low $82,318; the figures come from the Kraken exchange, as of October 12 around 6:45 p.m. Against the previous day that leaves a loss of 1.2 percent.

Bitcoin Forecast: Why Wednesday Weighs More Than Today's Price

A daily loss of 1.2 percent says little. What counts is the expectation the market carries into the Fed meeting. The CME futures exchange currently prices a probability of around 19.4 percent for a further rate rise of 25 basis points on October 28. A week ago it was 22.1 percent, a month ago 42.5 percent. The expectation of tighter monetary policy has therefore more than halved within four weeks, and a surprisingly high inflation print on Wednesday is exactly what could gather that expectation back up.