Bitcoin holds $76,000 after Fed rate hike, but 4 demand signals flash warning

Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $75,064.82 on Sept. 16, but recovered and reclaimed the $76,000 zone after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference wrapped up.

The S&P 500 fell roughly 0.7%, the Dow dropped 1.2%, and the 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.734% in the same window, while Bitcoin held its ground.

Warsh's real signal sat well past the hike itself

The Fed raised its target range 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, but fixed-income derivatives had already priced in odds above 90% of that move before the meeting began.

Warsh then said at his press conference that he would be “hard pressed” to call broad financial conditions restrictive. A dot plot released alongside the decision showed 16 of 18 policymakers projecting at least one more hike this year.

That combination raises the bar for every liquidity-sensitive asset well beyond what a single quarter-point move could settle on its own.

Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, argued the hike itself was never the number worth watching.

In a note to CryptoSlate, he said:

“Rates are likely to stay restrictive for longer than investors had hoped.”

Levin pointed to the median year-end rate near 4% to 4.25%, and also said that he is watching Treasury yields and liquidity conditions more closely than the Fed's headline decision, since Bitcoin has already absorbed much of the higher-rate expectation built into this meeting.