Bitcoin hovers below $65,000 as Middle East tensions escalate further

Bitcoin is holding near $64,700 Friday, barely changed over the last 24-hour period, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is down 0.2% over the period.

Brent crude has meanwhile moved to over $83 a barrel after Yemen’s Iran-linked Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Treasury yields have seen a slight correction, but remain at 4.67% for the 10-year note, a level Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer said “history suggests that nothing good happens.”

Higher oil could add to inflation pressure if sustained, while elevated Treasury yields tighten financial conditions. Together, they could limit expectations for near-term rate cuts and weigh on bitcoin and other risk assets.

Gold has meanwhile maintained its recovery, moving up 1.5% to now trade at $4,300 per ounce as investors move toward safety in the face of uncertainty.

Derivatives positioning

• Long-short taker ratio: The crypto futures market’s long-short taker ratio has returned to neutral after leaning bullish on Thursday, suggesting traders may be adopting a more cautious stance ahead of the U.S. payrolls report.
• CC token leads OI growth: Canton Network’s CC token is down 13% in 24 hours, yet its futures open interest (OI) has surged over 5%. The combination is said to validate the downtrend, especially as the 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta remains negative, indicating sellers are more aggressive by shorting futures via market orders rather than passive limit orders.
• Open Interest Movers: DOGE, XRP, and SUI are open interest gainers, while SHIB has seen a drop.
• CVD Indicator: The CVD indicator paints a bearish picture for the market, as most majors (excluding ADA, HBAR, and ETH) show negative CVD readings.
• Volatility Indexes: The BVIV index, representing BTC’s annualized 30-day implied volatility, remains near a long-held floor of 36%, showing little signs of stress despite the Clarity Act delay and the impending U.S. jobs report. The same holds true for ether’s volatility index (EVIV).
• Options Activity: In Deribit-listed options, puts (bearish bets) at the $60,000 and $62,000 strikes dominate the 24-hour volume rankings for BTC, while the $2,000 call is the most popular for ETH.