Bitcoin Loses $80,000: Why Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Is Key

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is back below $80,000 and testing a critical zone near its 50-week moving average ahead of Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech at 10 a.m. ET today.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said on Thursday that the next one to two weeks could determine whether the rally is a true breakout or another bear market fakeout.

The setup reminds him of prior midterm-year rallies, especially 2018, when Bitcoin bounced hard, hit the 50-week moving average, then rolled over into a deeper fourth-quarter low.

Cowen said Bitcoin's current structure has tracked the 2018 bear market analog closely, with a February low near $60,000, a higher low in late March or early April, a lower high in May, followed by a summer sweep below $60,000 and a rally back toward the 50-week moving average.

In 2018, Bitcoin also rallied to the 50-week moving average, briefly faked higher, then sold off into a deeper Q4 bottom.

This time, the rally took longer to develop, but Cowen said the path still looks similar enough to keep the bearish scenario alive.

Key Bitcoin Levels

Cowen said the market is now focused on whether Bitcoin can accept above the low-to-mid $80,000s, with his key line being $85,000.

"If Bitcoin starts accepting on multiple weekly closes in the mid-80s, it really calls into question the validity of the continuation of the bear market," Cowen said.