Bitcoin Price Prediction: Six of Eight Octobers Up

Bitcoin has started October 2026 with a small gain and costs around $84,800 on Sunday morning, October 4 (according to CoinGecko). The month has a nickname among crypto investors, Uptober, and for the Bitcoin price prediction it is worth looking at how much there is to that reputation. We have analysed the monthly candles from Binance since 2018.

Bitcoin's October record since 2018

Six of eight Octobers ended in the black for Bitcoin. The strongest was 2021 with plus 39.9 percent, followed by 2023 with plus 28.5 percent and 2020 with plus 28.0 percent. Then come 2024 with plus 11.0 percent, 2019 with plus 10.3 percent and 2022 with plus 5.5 percent. Only 2018 with minus 3.8 percent and 2025 with minus 3.9 percent ended in the red (monthly candles from Binance against USDT, from October 1 to 31).

The record is better than that of most altcoins. Solana, for example, has ended only three of six Octobers in the black since 2020, as our October analysis of Solana shows. Eight years is a small sample, though, and the swings range from minus 4 to plus 40 percent. A rule cannot be derived from that, but a tendency can.

What October 2025 teaches

Last October shows how quickly the month can turn. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin reached its record high of around $126,000 (CoinGecko). Four days later, on October 10, US President Trump announced tariffs of 100 percent on Chinese imports. Within 24 hours, leveraged positions worth more than $19 billion were force-closed, more than on any day before, as CoinDesk Research has worked through. Bitcoin closed the month down 3.9 percent, and the price today is still around a third away from that record.