Bitcoin Profit-Taking Eases at September Highs as Holders Aren't Rushing to Sell

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin recently climbed as high as $87,000, but the scale of profit-taking was smaller than in August.

According to Adler, seven-day realized profit reached $9.1 billion on Aug. 26, when Bitcoin traded at $78,600. By comparison, seven-day realized profit stood at $7.3 billion on Sept. 24, when Bitcoin rose to $84,100, down 19% from the August peak.

Over the same period, realized losses fell to $1.5 billion from $2.6 billion. As of Sept. 28, net realized profit over the past seven days was $4.3 billion.

Profit-taking by short-term holders is also losing momentum. The STH SOPR indicator, which shows whether short-term holders are moving coins at a profit on average, fell from 1.028 on Aug. 26 to 1.016 on Sept. 23 and 1.01 on Sept. 28. That means short-term holders are still realizing gains on average, but the size of those gains is shrinking.

Adler wrote that market-wide realized profit at September highs was 19% lower than in August even though Bitcoin was trading at a higher price. He added that the key gauge for identifying a bearish signal will be whether short-term holder SOPR falls below 1 and realized profit-and-loss metrics turn negative.