Options markets told a more cautious story. Open interest fell 12.5% from $31.3 billion to $27.4 billion. Implied volatility moved above realized volatility, and the 25-delta skew climbed from 15.08% to 16.88%, reflecting greater demand for downside protection.
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Bitcoin ETF Outflows Narrow
U.S. spot ETF net outflows narrowed 94.6% in a single week, from negative $405 million to negative $22 million. The improvement suggests institutional selling pressure is fading.
However, ETF trading volume dropped 29.5% from $13.6 billion to $9.6 billion, pointing to less urgent participation among traditional finance investors. The ETF MVRV ratio rose from 1.10 to 1.16, pushing holders further into unrealized profit and raising the prospect of near-term profit-taking.
On-Chain Activity Remains Weak
On-chain data painted a more subdued picture. Active addresses rose modestly by 2.4% to 617,017, but transfer volume fell 8.3% to $5.4 billion and fee revenue declined 5.1% to $146,600. Those numbers suggest the network is stabilizing without yet attracting meaningful new capital.
Realized cap change slipped from negative 0.6% to negative 0.7%, confirming that net capital continues to leave.
The short-term to long-term holder supply ratio edged down from 16.1% to 16.0%, and hot capital share dropped from 21% to 20.1%. Long-term holders continue to anchor the supply structure.
Glassnode analysts @CryptoVizArt and @ChrisBeamish_ concluded that the rebound looks constructive but needs confirmation. Stronger follow-through in volume, capital inflows and network activity will be required for the rally to prove durable, the report said.
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Steven Zeiler is Chief Evangelist at Yellow, working with builders to create real-time, non-custodial trading infrastructure using the Yellow SDK. A programmer, technologist, and entrepreneur, he previously worked for Ripple, where he helped architect peer-to-peer interbank payment prototypes and contributed to decentralizing the XRP Ledger through consensus tracking software.
