In brief
- Bitcoin price bounced to $65,000 today, but the rally was short-lived.
- The price of Bitcoin is up on the seven-day chart, but bearish technical indicators persist.
- Prediction market traders are split: odds on Myriad point to more short-term pain, but not yet in "worst case" scenario territory,
Bitcoin got the macro excuse to run. It didn't take it.
Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July—the first net loss since the pandemic-era recovery and a sharp miss against the 95,000 gain economists expected, Decrypt reported Friday. Markets read it as a reason for the Federal Reserve to keep its hands off rates, and Treasury yields fell. That should have been fuel for a risk-on bounce. Instead, Bitcoin's latest daily candle shows it tapping the average price of the last 50 days and rolling straight back over below that territory.
The performance of the top 10 crypto assets by market cap tells the same story in relative terms. Bitcoin was one of the steadier large caps on the week at +1.17% over seven days, behind only BNB and Solana—yet it still can't close back above its own moving-average ceiling. When the strongest macro tailwind in weeks can't flip a death cross, the market is telling you something.
Bitcoin price: What the charts say
Bitcoin is trading at $64,261, down 0.92% on the day, pinned just under the $64,568 floor in a market that still carries a death cross—a formation in the charts that’s a classic bearish indicator for traders.
Since the May peak near $80,000, when traders had a glimmer of hope of seeing Bitcoin consolidating a golden cross (the inverse of a death cross), the coin has logged lower highs and lower lows, bleeding through June and July into a volatile, downward-sloping base.
The leg from the $66,921 swing high to the $62,216 low set the structure. Price bounced off that $62,216 floor and tried to reclaim the 50-day exponential moving average, or EMA—the lower edge of the red EMA cloud—but stalled and rolled back. That bounce looks exactly like what bull traps are supposed to look like: enough to draw buyers, not enough to hold. A market this trendless can compress longer than most traders expect.
The average price of the last 50 days still sits below the 200-day moving average, in the formation traders call a death cross. Exponential moving averages smooth out average price over a set period; when the shorter-term average trades under the longer-term one, it tells you the medium-term trajectory remains down. Bulls needed a daily close back above the EMA50 to even start reversing that reading, and they didn't get it.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, reads 50—dead neutral. RSI is a momentum gauge on a 0–100 scale: above 70 is overbought, below 30 is oversold. At 50, neither buyers nor sellers have the upper hand, which fits a coin that bounced and immediately gave it back.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is “on” and has been loading for 22 days, with momentum ticking up. Squeezes (when volatility compresses into a tight band) often resolve in the direction of the prior trend, and here the prior trend is down. However, it is not always the case, and the indicator only suggests a big move may be coming, not the most likely direction.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 10.6. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction; readings under 20 mark a directionless, choppy tape where false breakouts and stop hunts are common. At 10.6 the trend has no real conviction—though the directional indicators tilt bearish (DI- sits above DI+), which lines up with the failed EMA50 push rather than fighting it.
