Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly Above $80,000, Market Focuses on Whether Demand Can Support New Highs

Bitcoin rebounded strongly from a low of $74,800 to above $81,000, with technicals and on-chain data both pointing to a key cost range of $76,700 to $77,700. A decline in short-term holder supply, a rise in long-term holder supply, and a decrease in circulation frequency all indicate that the market structure is changing. However, although current demand is sufficient to push the price above the cost basis of active supply, it is not yet enough to constitute a supply shock. Whether the price can hold above $77,700 in the future will become the core signal for judging whether the short-term range has been effectively broken; if it fails to hold, it may retreat to around $76,700 or even $72,500. The market’s next direction depends on whether new buying can continue to absorb potential selling pressure from older inventories.

Technicals and On-Chain Data Resonate, Making the $76,700 to $77,700 Range Key

From a technical structure perspective, the current Fibonacci retracement range is based on the August low of about $62,600 and the September high of about $82,300, with the 38.2% retracement level at about $74,800 and the 23.6% retracement level at around $77,700. Bitcoin approached the key support of $74,800 on September 15, but regained upward momentum before the close and maintained above that area in subsequent trading. The strong rally on September 18 pushed BTC past the $77,700 mark and further toward $81,000. This move validated the view in a previous analysis report that the $76,500 to $77,000 area has significant support. It is worth noting that the report used the June low of about $57,700 as its baseline, while the current chart is based on the upward trend that began in August. The different starting points explain why the earlier analysis set the first retracement point near $76,500, while the current chart adjusts it to near $77,700.