Bitcoin rose after last three U.S. midterms, but 2018 saw sharp post-election drop

[DigitalToday intern reporter Seung-a Yoo] Bitcoin rose in each of the 12 months after the last three U.S. midterm elections, data showed. In 2018, however, it plunged 45.5 percent in the month after the vote, leaving room for the possibility of a large correction even if post-midterm strength emerges.

On Oct. 6 (local time), blockchain outlet Decrypt reported that CryptoQuant analysed Bitcoin’s moves after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterm elections ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterms. Bitcoin rose 24.5 percent, 44.9 percent and 92.3 percent, respectively, in the 12 months after each election.

A similar pattern appeared in U.S. stocks. In the 12 months after 19 midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 rose every time, with an average gain of about 15.4 percent. Past performance does not guarantee future gains. Bitcoin’s post-midterm advance has occurred only three times, leaving too small a sample to use it as a reliable trading rule.

The 2018 case in particular shows the post-election rise was not smooth. Bitcoin fell about 45.5 percent in the month after the midterms, but later rebounded and ended up 44.9 percent higher over 12 months. That means a positive one-year result after the midterms alone cannot rule out the risk of a steep drop beforehand.