Bitcoin's BTC/XAU Ratio Signals Potential $90K Move

As Bitcoin [BTC] consolidates below $90k, the important question is what could eventually push the price higher.

Interestingly enough, a catalyst may already be in place. From a macro perspective, the yields on treasuries are rising, and the probability of a rate hike in October has plummeted to 17% from 75% a few days ago. Nonetheless, the risk appetite remains repressed, and investors are still hedging into safe havens. In other words, liquidity is still cautious.

As analysts at the Kobeissi Letter note:

We just got a weaker than expected September jobs report, a 2-month downward revision of -60,000 jobs, and weaker than expected PCE inflation data. Meanwhile, the 10Y Note Yield can’t even hold a decline for more than one hour. The bond market is not messing around.

However, looking closer at the situation, it becomes apparent that the relevance of Bitcoin on the macro level is far from being over. As seen on the chart below, the BTC/XAU ratio is pushing higher and looks ready to break above a significant level, which would be the second time since the rotation started in mid-August.

According to AMBCrypto, the liquidity from this rotation could be the catalyst that propels Bitcoin towards $90k. With FOMC related FUD keeping volatility high, a rotation from gold to BTC could provide the liquidity required for a breakout, a view is shared by Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity.