Bitcoin’s October rally meets 6% yield fears – Which side wins Q4?

Q4 is just around the corner, and the crypto market is already discussing whether it will be bullish or bearish.

Notably, the bears have quite a compelling case. The market has started reacting to the recent 25 bps hike by the Federal Reserve.

Goldman Sachs has already priced in another rate hike at the October FOMC, and there are reasons to believe that this hawkish scenario could play out.

Why is crypto’s Q4 outlook turning bearish?

Following the Fed’s decision, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.734%, its highest level in 26 months.

Further increases could tighten financial conditions, especially with U.S. government debt exceeding $30 trillion.

The bigger signal, however, is coming from the 10-year Treasury yield.

Based on analysis from the Kobeissi Letter, a move above the 6% threshold next year can not be ruled out. The recent breakout above 5% is a crucial technical signal, suggesting that rising yields could continue to put pressure on liquidity and in turn on risk assets such as crypto.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index crossed 100 for the first time in over four weeks. A stronger dollar could tighten global liquidity and reduce demand for risk assets, including crypto.

Combined with rate-hike expectations and rising yields, the broader macro setup is starting to weigh on crypto’s September ROI.