Bitcoin treasury firms can outperform BTC... but is the risk worth taking?

There are now 179 listed companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, all following variations of the same simple formula:

Raise capital on traditional markets, buy Bitcoin and attempt to increase the amount of BTC that backs each share faster than the company dilutes shareholders.

According to Mark Palmer, managing director and senior equity research analyst at StoneX, that’s how treasury companies attempt to “beat” Bitcoin’s returns.

Making that equation work is a lot easier when the price of Bitcoin is going up and investors are happy to fund the next spree of purchases. Unfortunately, the mechanics work in both directions.

When the premium evaporates, investor enthusiasm wanes. Financing gets harder, debt and yield obligations remain, and the same structure that outperformed the asset magnifies the losses on the way down. No surprise that the 50 largest Bitcoin treasury companies bled $83 billion in market value since July 2025.

Metaplanet’s recent shareholder backlash shows the sort of questions that arise when treasury companies dilute their shareholders too much.

Treasury companies are more likely to need to raise money in bear markets, but this creates a potential problem. Palmer says: