BTC price risks $80K loss into FOMC, earnings: Three things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) begins the last week of October fighting to hold $80,000 support ahead of a busy week of US macro data and earnings reports.

Key points:

• Markets see the Fed holding interest rates in their current 3.75-4% range at its meeting on Wednesday as Brent crude cools to $110 per barrel.
• South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index resumes downside ahead of a major round of US corporate earnings results.
• Bitcoin is on track to end October down 4%, copying 2025 performance, as $80,000 support appears weak.

Markets see Fed rate-hike pause with oil still above $100

The US Federal Reserve is in focus for macro analysts this week as it will decide the next move on the federal funds rate on Wednesday. Markets will be watching the rate decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as well as language used by Fed chair Kevin Warsh at the accompanying press conference.

Markets have little doubt over what officials will decide, seeing over 90% odds that rates will stay in their current 3.75-4% range. FedWatch data shows consensus favoring a 0.25% hike at the December FOMC meeting. 

Fed target-rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Commenting, economist Robin Brooks argued that such expectations were a gift to Warsh, who would not need to fight external demands to change course.