CLARITY Act Odds Crash to 10% Before Senate Returns: Galaxy

Key Takeaways

• Galaxy cut the CLARITY Act’s passage odds to 10% from 75%.
• A Senate cloture motion on the bill ripens at 2:15 p.m. Sept. 15.
• The SEC canceled a meeting on potential crypto offering rules.

Why Galaxy Sees a One-in-Ten Chance for the Crypto Bill

Odds that the CLARITY Act passes this year have fallen to 10%, according to Galaxy Digital (Nasdaq: GLXY). Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at the digital-asset firm, stated the revised figure in an Aug. 14 post on X, down from 75% in May. The bill would divide U.S. crypto oversight between two federal regulators.

Senators return to Washington on Sept. 14 and face a working period of roughly three weeks before leaving for midterm election activity around Oct. 2. Thorn stated:

“The reality is that CLARITY is now much more about politics than policy.”

The cloture motion on proceeding to the bill will ripen at 2:15 p.m. EDT on Sept. 15, according to the Senate schedule. If held, the procedural vote would place the CLARITY Act among the first major legislative items awaiting lawmakers after the recess. Oversight of digital commodities and certain crypto transactions would be divided between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).