Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer: Bitcoin Power Law Points to $300,000 by 2029

Fidelity Investments Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer stated that the Bitcoin power law model indicates a new cyclical bull market is unfolding after the price holds at $60,000, with a target of approximately $300,000 by 2029 according to the model.

He referred to $60,000 as the "sand line." The historical peak of about $126,200 occurred in 2025, with recent lows around $57,700 to $60,000, and the current price is still about 30% lower than the previous high. The chart also tracks the 52-week Z-score relative to gold, which has turned positive, a signal he sees as indicative of past cycle bottoms. The resistance zone is marked around $82,000 to $86,000.

The power law model fits price to time or network adoption as a power function, outlining upper, middle, and lower tracks with a logarithmic linear trajectory. The lower track has closely aligned with major bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. This framework is a historical extrapolation, not a deterministic prediction. Data sources include Fidelity, Bloomberg, and Haver's weekly series.

In market mechanisms, buyers view holding the power law lower track as a confirmation of a new cycle, while sellers are still trading based on the 2025 high point. The event-driven aspect comes from traditional asset management macro heads recalibrating the statistical curve as a bull market switch. Beneficiaries are those incorporating long-term targets into their portfolio narratives, while those under pressure are waiting for lower re-entry, viewing $60,000 as a continuation rather than a bottom. Funds are shifting from "will it break the curve" to "the next time coordinate on the curve."

Public statements did not guarantee $300,000, only noting it as a trajectory reading under the premise of holding the lower track.