From Uptober to Hacktober: Are Bitcoin’s seasonal patterns becoming obsolete?

Bitcoin’s back-to-back October losses have put its “Uptober” reputation under the microscope as analysts weigh seasonal trends against institutional demand and economic conditions.

Bitcoin fell 7.3% in October 2026, following a roughly 4% decline a year earlier, according to CoinGlass data.

The losses defied October’s historically bullish reputation, which earned it the nickname “Uptober.” This year, industry figures turned to darker labels, including “Black October” and “Hacktober,” amid a wave of crypto security incidents, including Binance’s record-breaking $6.3 billion hack.

Bitcoin’s seasonal trends shift as monthly volatility declines

October has historically delivered Bitcoin’s highest median return at 15.4%, with gains in 10 of 13 years through 2025, according to Andrew Yang, a researcher at crypto analytics firm Kaiko.

September’s historically bearish reputation has weakened as well. Bitcoin has posted gains every September since 2023, which could reflect traders buying ahead of an expected October rally, Yang told Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin’s narrowing price swings may also be making seasonal trends less pronounced, Yang said. Its typical monthly move has declined from 14% between 2013 and 2016 to 9.6% since 2024, leaving less room for sharp seasonal rallies, he added.