JPMorgan & Wall Street Giants’ Estimates on US CPI Inflation, Will Crypto Market Recover?

Crypto market participants are bracing for US CPI inflation data today, with Bitcoin sliding almost 2% to below $77,000 ahead of the release. Recent oil price rebounds amid the US-Iran war are keeping traders uncertain about market direction. Here’s what JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and other Wall Street giants’ estimates say.

Wall Street Expectations on US CPI Inflation

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August US CPI inflation report today, September 11. Economists’ forecasts point to a 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) rise in inflation, up from 0.1% in July, with annual inflation expected to hold steady at 3.4%, similar to July headline CPI inflation data.

Meanwhile, core CPI is projected at 0.2% MoM, similar to 0.2% previously. Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have dropped to 2.4%, falling from 2.5% Core CPI inflation print last month.

Notably, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and other Wall Street giants estimate a 3.4% median CPI inflation forecast. Moody’s and Nomura expect easing to 3.3%. Meanwhile, the August core CPI median estimate is 0.2%, similar to economists’ forecasts.

Goldman Sachs Short Macro Trading’s Brian Bingham says the Fed is now heavily focused on a single upcoming CPI print. He notes Fed Waller’s recent dovish remarks confirmed the FOMC Board skews dovish. Brian Bingham argues that if a Fed rate hike is priced above 50%, bond markets would interpret a Fed hold as a policy error.