MSTR Stock Outlook as Analyst Warns Share Dilution Weakens Strategy’s Leveraged Bitcoin Thesis

Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) stock is up by 30% in August 2026. The stock opened trading on August 3 at $94, and it has since gained to $127 by market close on August 28.

MSTR’s gains over the last 30 days are because of two factors: Bitcoin (BTC) price recovery and the company’s rising USD reserves.

As earlier reported by CoinGape, Strategy has reduced its net leverage to 0.1% after raising enough cash to settle nearly all its debts. But the cash is coming from MSTR stock sales, which an analyst now warns weakens Strategy’s thesis as a leveraged Bitcoin play.

Analyst Warns Strategy’s Stock Sales Weaken Leveraged Bitcoin Thesis

Analyst Jeff Dorman notes that Strategy’s market-to-net-asset value, which shows whether MSTR stock is trading at a discount or at a premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, will remain stuck at 1.

Dorman says this mNAV might never have a significant premium again as it did in the past because of Strategy’s ongoing stock sales that are diluting the company.

He says that if the mNAV does not grow, Strategy’s use case as “levered BTC” weakens considerably, adding that this lack of growth makes MSTR a “boring” stock to purchase.

“Assuming a constant mNAV, you get at most 20% more upside owning MSTR than you do owning BTC, and that assumes BTC doubles,” the analyst opined.