Historically, extremely high Supply in Loss readings have tended to emerge closer to major market bottoms than cycle tops, suggesting that much of the bearish repricing may already have occurred.
In extreme stress, Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss metric climbed toward the 50%–55% region during some of its most severe bear-market phases, including downturns around 2015, 2018–2019, and 2022.
In other words, Bitcoin can remain in a high-loss regime for months, with Supply in Loss rising above 50% before prices establish a durable bottom.
How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go?
Bitcoin’s three-day chart shows a bear flag breakdown already underway after price slipped below the pattern’s rising support in June.
BTC is now consolidating near $64,000, below its 20-day EMA at $64,900 and well under the 50-day EMA near $69,200. The flag’s measured move points toward roughly $50,400, implying about 21% downside.
